Análise das inter-relações empíricas entre variáveis macroeconômicas e taxas ocupacionais com indicadores previdenciários

Abstract

The Brazilian social protection has accentuated its importance among the lower classes of society. These individuals see the INSS with only source of income during old age or in case of an accident during your life. An analysis of macroeconomic indicators and rates of occupational factors that are linked to social security and tax collection, issue and balance are important in building a policy that helps in decision making. This study estimates the relationship between macroeconomic variables and financial indicators with the Occupational Social Security, said revenues, and balance pension issue. The data used represent monthly rates available on government websites, for the period March 2002 to December 2009. For this purpose, we use unit root tests and Johansen cointegration, Granger causality analysis, estimation and analysis of the model vector error correction (VEC), estimation of impulse response function and the decomposition of the variance of errors prediction. The results indicate that changes in long-term indicators and the collection of social security issue is related to the same variables and coefficients of adjustment to imbalances in the short term are low, that is, slowly tend to balance in the long run. Regarding the pension balance different variables that were found to show long-term relationship with this variable, but also the long-term equilibrium occurs slowly at times. After the construction of error correction models found for the variables under study, one can say that the results showed important inter-relationships between variables and that are consistent with the literature. These results show the behavior of financial indicators of the Brazilian social security system in relation to other variables