Estudo do emprego formal por setor de atividade econômica na região Sul do Brasil de 2003 a 2014

Abstract

The global and national political and economic situation reflects directly on changes in the labor market. Concern about the employability, generate new jobs, as well as security and formality of these, and, places that no longer exist causing unemployment, it is constantly agenda in the academic literature, the media and at the same time government concern. In this context, the objective in this research was to analyze the absolute indicators of formal employment, initially in the eight sectors of the economy (mineral extraction, manufacturing, industrial and public utility services, construction, trade, services, agriculture and public administration) and, subsequently adjust predictive models in four major economic sectors (construction, trade, manufacturing and services). First, there was a descriptive analysis of dismissals in the state of Rio Grande do Sul between January 2004 and December 2014. Then, the analysis extended to the other states of the South region of Brazil (Santa Catarina and Paraná) jointly between 05/2003 and 12/2014. For this, we used the secondary database of the General Register of Employed and Unemployed, made available by the Ministry of Labor and Employment. For data analysis and model adjustments, we used a methodology developed by Box and Jenkins to time series. Initial results indicated significant growth trend of dismissals in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in seven of the eight sectors of this economy. Second time, were set twelve statistical models forecast that showed seasonal component. Through the models found, it was possible to determine the forecast of formal employment by sector of economic activity in southern Brazil, based on values outside of the sample. In conclusion, the models found showed satisfactory predictions as accompanied the process of the actual values, indicating low average percentage absolute error.