O mercado de carne de frango brasileiro no contexto dos novos acordos regionais de comércio: Transpacífico e Transatlântico

Abstract

The developed countries, heavily impacted by the economic and financial crisis of 2008, signaled the recovery with negotiations on two major international trade agreements, The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TPP and TTIP, respectively). The establishment of trade agreements may minimize the effects of protectionist policies of countries/blocks, eliminating or reducing existing barriers, thus stimulating the increase in trade among member countries of such agreements. The TPP and TTIP imply the reduction of tariffs and non-tariff barriers between member countries, the United States case. Thus, competition with Brazil will tend to increase in many products, case of the chicken meat, in which the United States occupies the first position in world production, while Brazil positions itself as the largest exporter of the commodity. From this new trade matrix, the present study aims to examine the possible impacts of the Transpacific and Transatlantic agreements on the Brazilian chicken meat market. The methodology derives from a Spatial Equilibrium Model as a Mixed Complementarity Problem (MCP), based on five alternative scenarios, which aimed to highlight possible changes in the market of chicken meat from the implementation of new trade agreements. The first scenario simulates the formation of the TPP with the reduction of tariff barriers, while the second scenario presupposes the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers. Regarding the TTIP, scenarios 3 and 4, it is assumed the reduction of tariff barriers as well as the elimination of tariff barriers and technical constraints; in the fifth scenario was considered the simultaneous occurrence of the two agreements, through the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers. The results indicate that, in general, with the implementation of both agreements the Brazilian chicken meat market may invariably bring losses, particularly in relation to production, consequently, affecting producers' prices and surpluses. The most damaging scenarios for Brazil are the formation of the TPP in its broadest form, based on the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers, as well as the simultaneous formation of the agreements, in which the country show a net loss in welfare. From this, we emphasize the importance of negotiating trade agreements to ensure the industry conditions of expansion and access to new markets, As well as greater rigor in matters related to animal health, inspection and certification, aspects of a technical nature that have great potential to distort trade flows internationally.