Determinantes da criminalidade nos municípios do Rio Grande do Sul: uma análise econométrica espacial para o ano de 2010

Abstract

Crime is a complex phenomenon that causes high costs to society, as well as a major impediment to economic development. Thus, it is relevant to understand what leads individuals to commit crimes in order to enable the promotion of appropriate policies that can minimize the effects of crime on social welfare. In this sense, this work aimed to analyze the determinants of crime in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul, in 2010, through spatial econometric models, seeking to provide information and estimate the impacts of some variables related to development, inequality, employment, demographics. and education, seeking to understand how these variables affect crime rates. In addition, we sought to analyze, through Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the existence of spatial dependence on crime in municipalities, and how the crime of a municipality is affected by the crime of its neighbors by identifying the formation of clusters. We sought to analyze crimes against the person (homicides), against property (theft and robbery) and crimes without victims (drug trafficking), which allowed us to identify how the same explanatory variables behave in crimes of different natures. Another contribution of the work is the inclusion of little explored variables in the literature, such as the percentage of married people and lagged social variables, such as school dropout in 2000 and the percentage of teenage mothers in 1991 in explaining crime rates in 2010. The results showed that there is spatial dependence on crime in the municipalities, which is weaker dependence for homicides in relation to other types of crime. The main clusters of crime were found in the coastal regions and the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre. A higher income level is positively correlated with property crimes and trafficking. Income inequality was not as relevant, having more effect on homicides than on property crimes. Health development has a strong impact on reducing homicides and trafficking, while development on education was not significant. Employment proved to be one of the main deterrents of crime, but youth employment had the opposite effect, which may indicate youth dissatisfaction with the labor market. The variable percentage of married people showed the greatest deterrent power for crime in all types of crime, indicating that it may be an important element of analysis in future work. The variable relative to teenage mothers in 1991 was positive and significant for theft crime, indicating that facts related to demographics and childhood conditions in the past help to explain current crime.