"Guerras cambiais": uma análise de suas condições necessárias à luz dos sistemas de inferência fuzzi

Abstract

During the 20th century and 21st century, the International System witnessed three time periods characterized by intense currency devaluations induced to boost international competitiveness and economic recovery. However, the negative effects of these actions would go beyond the borders of the States involved by spilling over its impacts to other international actors. The landmark achievement would come to be known as "currency war". Therefore, the present study proposes na analysis of a set of necessary conditions for advent of the “currency war” phenomenon in the International System. The hypothesis adopted is underpinned on the assumption that there are four necessary conditions: (I) Currency in Accession, (II) Currency in Decline (Loss of the leadership of the International Monetary System), (III) Global Economic Crisis and (IV) Regulatory Incapability. For this purpose, mappings of the three time periods of occurrence of the “currency wars” called (i) “Currency War I”, (ii) “Currency War II” and (iii) “Currency War III” were conducted with support from the Comparative-Historical Methodology. Lastly, the “Currency War III” was analyzed by means of a theoretical conceptual model according to Fuzzy Logic in order to unify empirical evidence and theory to envisage the presence of those conditions. The research technique adopted was bibliographic review and the method used involved the explanatory-descriptive approach. The results found through the mapping of the three “currency wars” are convergent with the hypothesis presented. The application of fuzzy tools to the “Currency War III” resulted in an environment of moderate economic crisis, high macroeconomic stability and low regulatory capability, resulting in a high favorable environment for the advent of the “currency war”.