O volume de tráfego nas concessões da 3ª etapa do PROCROFE: variação das projeções dos estudos e o impacto nas receitas tarifárias

Abstract

In Brazil, the road sector has always been directly linked to the country's economic development, especially from the 40s and 50s, with prioritization of the national road network expansion. With the advancement of the decades and the growing participation of the private sector, it was necessary to create the Federal Highway Concessions Program (PROCROFE), responsible for directing investments in the main road sections, which are divided into four stages until the present moment. In the project structuring stages, projections are defined for the vehicle's traffic flow over the years of a concession, in addition to basic toll rates to be paid by road users. According to Ferreira et al. (2021), the flow projection of vehicles in the studies is close to the real traffic, except for the 3rd Stage concessions, whose highways have less traffic than expected. Based on the mentioned theme, the general objective of this work is to estimate the impact on toll revenues from the difference in traffic flow from the 3rd stage concessions studies to what was realized. To achieve the objective, the proposed methodology consists of elaborating the theoretical framework of the theme and collecting data on the actual and proposed traffic flow, which allows the calculation of the difference between the projections and the reality, as well as collecting toll revenues to estimate the financial impact. In summary, the concessionaires under study will present, on average, an equivalent traffic flow variation of -17.94% to what was projected in the traffic studies. If the highways presented the estimated equivalent traffic flow, the six concessions would have obtained additional revenue of R$ 2.86 billion to what was accounted for between 2014 and 2021.