Análise do comportamento de variáveis determinantes da estocagem da soja em grãos em silos metálicos

Abstract

Soybean (Glycine max) is one of the grains most sold and exported by Brazil. Its quality depends on the temperature and moisture content of the product during storage. Temperature and high humidity cause deterioration of the beans, and therefore it is of fundamental importance to study the behavior of these variables. The objective of this study is to develop an econometric model that is able to reveal the behavior of temperature and humidity in a prototype soybean storage facility. Data is collected and stored by software developed for this purpose. The objective is to provide assistance for monitoring these variables using the methodology of vector autoregression, considering the internal and external temperature and humidity of the silo. Impulse response was performed and it showed how much each variable will respond to an external event in relation to a change in temperature and humidity. It is concluded that an early prediction of temperature and humidity is very important to allow the operator to perform an aeration plan to maintain the quality of the product.