Estrutura social e crescimento econômico nos municípios do Rio Grande do Sul (1991-2010)

Abstract

The reductions in fertility and mortality rates contribute to the ageing of the population and generate socio-economic changes. The aim of this study is to analyze the changes in social structure and the spatial heterogeneities, and their relations with economic growth in the Rio Grande do Sul’ cities, based on Demographic Census of 1991, 2000 and 2010. Quantitative approaches are used in the analysis, as the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and spatial econometric models. The data used are from the Human Development Atlas of Brazil (2017) and the Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, 2017). It was found that there are distinct processes of demographic transition between the Rio Grande do Sul’ cities. In specific, in the Northwest of the State the transition process is characterized as late, evidenced through spatial clusters with high fertility and mortality rate, and a high dependency ratio of young people. The Northeast region has opposing characteristics, which features a more advanced demographic transition process, with larger ageing population. It is also verified that these demographic characteristics tend to long-term convergence. The relationship is inverse between the economic growth and the ratio of dependence, the higher the number of young people in front of the active-age population, smaller is economic growth. Demographic variables as a whole were significant for the convergence of per capita income. The increase in population density contributes to economic growth, while the absolute increase in population decreases per capita income. However, the age structure was the one that most accelerated the convergence process of income and the age group of people aged between 35 to 45 years old are those that contribute the most to the increase in economic growth. The quality of life of the population, measured by life expectancy, is an important variable for the increased production.