Estudo da evolução do número de acidentes do trabalho na Região Sul do Brasil por meio de modelos ARFIMA

Abstract

The accelerated process of technological innovation has brought changes in the work organization, and we can see, therefore, an increase in the workload, leading to a high number of accidents. Considering the importance of the subject and the possibility of contribution about it, this study aims to analyze the evolution of work accidents in the southern region of Brazil, from 2008 to 2016, using Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average models (ARFIMA) to evaluate the evolution and prediction of the number of accidents. We considered the records made available by DATAPREV, in the Historical Data Base of the Statistical Yearbook of Social Security. Three representative models of the number of work accidents were found: by path and work sickness in Rio Grande do Sul, which presented similarities, since they contained only the fractional component and the constant (ARFIMA (0, d, 0)C) and by work sickness in Santa Catarina, an autoregressive component was added (ARFIMA (1, d, 0)C). By using the time series methodology, it is possible to obtain an important support of guidance and support for the monitoring of data related to work accidents. It should be noted that, although the databases may present incompleteness, it is important that there be a permanent dissemination of this information, in order to sensitize the institutions involved to achieve the continuous qualification of this source of knowledge about the profile of work accidents.