Previsibilidade de preços do milho para a região Sul do Brasil

Abstract

The Brazilian agribusiness played a key role in the resources generation for Brazil and in the development of the South region, following the big evolution the cereal business in the domestic and international scope in the last years . The insertion in the globalized ambiance spurred economic agents to adapt the great environment competition, encouraging the identification and exploration of competitive advantages. As consequence of the great importance that the corn crop represent to the economy, this study has the objective of analyzing this commodity market through econometric time series models, and develop pricing forecast models about the corn price paid to producer in the Brazilian southern region. In methodologic ways, using a time series of practiced prices in the South of Brazil, especially from the state of Paraná, that were adjusted to ARIMA and SARIMA models. Both models follow the modeling proposals Box & Jenkins (1970), with fully satisfactory results that provide a range of auxiliary tools to market players, and reducing uncertainty and minimizing possible risks.