Avaliação de fatores de risco relacionados à obtenção da meta do IDEB

Abstract

The objective of this study is to identify what factors influence the poor academic performance and are reflected in the scores of the Basic Education Development Index (IDEB). Data were collected from municipal, state and federal schools from the elementary school system, a total of 62 schools in Santa Maria, from 2011 to 2013, available in the Qedu website. Explanatory variables were used, such as location of schools, number of employees, number of students enrolled, number of students who failed, the existence of a library, reading room, computer lab and science lab, sports court, cafeteria and accessibility. For the analysis the data, a multiple logistic regression model was used. The dependent variable for the model was whether school had or had not reached the target set for IDEB that year. As the IDEB elementary school is evaluated in two stages, initial years (5th year) and final years (9th year), a total of two models was obtained. The results of the model adjustment indicate that the significant predictors (p ≤ 0.05) for the 5th year of 2011 were the number of students who failed (OR = 1.063) and reading room (OR = 8,286), while in 2013 the included variables were science laboratory (OR = 0.159) and number of students who failed (OR = 1.079). For the 9th year, the model adjustment did not show any significant variable neither in 2011 nor in 2013, therefore not generating a model. As for the year 2013, the only variable included was the number of students who failed (OR = 1.079). The variable number of failures, which was present in all the adjusted models, stands out due to its negative contribution, because the higher its value, the smaller the chance of attaining the IDEB target. Thus, since it significantly influences the achievement of the target, this variable should receive more attention. With this study, some of the variables that significantly influence the results of IDEB scores can be identified, which can be used as an aid to schools for decision making and planning of public policies to improve education and raise the quality score.