Análise do processo de desindustrialização na Região Sul do Brasil: uma abordagem por meio de econometria de séries temporais

Abstract

This work aims to analyze the industrial profile of South Region of Brazil, seeking to answer the following question: Is it occurring a process of deindustrialization in South Region of Brazil? In this sense, were adjusted two Vector Error Correction Models (VEC), with the following dependent variables: exports of manufacturing industry (high intensity, medium-high, medium-low and low intensity) of South Region of Brazil and exports of non-industrial products. The independent variables were real effective exchange rate; price index of non-energy commodities; and coefficient of the commercial openness degree. The results indicated that the exports of non-industrial products presented a greater increase than the products by technological intensity. In relation to the imports of the non-industrial products, we noted a decrease and an increase of the products by technological intensity. In relation to the estimation of VEC, the results indicated that the exchange devaluation stimulates the exports; the commercial openness was extremely damaging to the imports and the price index of non-energy commodities variable presented opposite sign to the expected. Finally, we concluded that there are strong evidences of the deindustrialization process in South Region of Brazil.