A atuação do governo russo na guerra civil Síria: compreendendo as razões e os objetivos de Moscou

Abstract

This research aims to understand the motivations and intentions of the Russian Federation in the face of the Syrian Civil War. In order to understand what led the government of Vladimir Putin to support the Syrian politician Bashar al-Assad in the face of the conflict triggered by the Arab Spring in 2011, we began with a historical overview of the Syrian Arab Republic state formation to the outbreak of the war. In sequence, the main events of the conflict (subdivided between 2011-2015 and from the Russian intervention to the present), the local actors and external agents involved, as well as their interests in hostility are discussed. The following chapter discusses the concepts of “strategy” and “grand strategy” to analyze Russian foreign policy in the 21st century in the light of the Foreign Policy Concepts of 2000, 2008, 2013 and 2016, as well as speeches by Presidents Putin and Medvedev, and determine the place of the Middle East and Syria in Russia's plans. The final section addresses the reasons for supporting Damascus based on three aspects: the history of fruitful bilateral relations, the geopolitical conjecture (especially western interventions focused on regime change and the fast expansion of ISIS) and threat perception of the central decision maker. Ultimately, we were able to conclude (1) that the war in question erupted catalyzed by the Arab Spring, but it is provided with a relevant socioeconomic-political-sectarian context, in addition to involving many local and external self-interested actors in a proxy war format; (2) there is a non-deep grand strategy of the Russian Federation as a set of principles and normative views on the International System, with occasional adjustments in tactics, especially with regard to the attitude towards the West; (3) the previous bilateral partnership between Russia and Syria was important for the decision to support the Assad regime, mainly the political-strategic attributes, which merged with the geopolitical context and the fear of terrorism spillover and western intervention closer to Russia has fueled the risky shot (due to Putin's threat perception) of making the 2015’s military action in Syria the first in the postSoviet country outside it’s near abroad.