Dinâmica do endividamento dos estados brasileiros no período 2001-2019: evidências a partir de dados em painel

Abstract

The indebtedness of the Brazilian federated states is a vital tool for public funding and investment, working to raise social welfare. However, if its use is unrestricted, it may result in financial imbalance, affecting the populace in the form of higher taxation or reduced supply of public goods and services. In order to impose a limit for state debt, the Lei da Responsabilidade Fiscal (Financial Responsibility Law) or LRF was ratified, contextualizing the objective of pondering the variables that may have determined a state’s debt in the period of 2001 to 2019. Our research regarding the effects of the LRF led to signs of positive results for the Brazilian states, with the issue of state debt being stabilized. For the purpose of reaching results regarding the factors behind public state debt, two econometric models were estimated, exhibiting their results as fixed effects, random effects and PCSE (Panel-Corrected Standard Errors), seeking to correct problems present in a panel data model. We utilized ten variables, which were sorted as political, financial, tributary or macroeconomic variables. We may highlight the significance of all variables applied in the model, evidencing the issue of state indebtedness as entwined to such conditions.