CO2: análise contemporânea no impacto do crescimento econômico e energia sobre a emissão de dióxido de carbono

Abstract

Nowadays, there is a growing concern with the preservation of the environment and the impact of human actions on it. The Brazilian Panel on Climate Change highlights the interference of these actions, which reach an unprecedented global scale and magnitude. The intensification of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been an important factor in global climate change and intensifying the greenhouse effect. Therefore, the objective of the thesis in question is to investigate the impact of energy consumption and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, the thesis also proposes to prepare an informative document on measures to be implemented, with the aim of reducing CO2 emissions by governments, companies, environmental organizations, consumers and students. This thesis is classified as explanatory research and is characterized by a quantitative approach. The final sample consisted of 69 countries, observed over a period of 11 years; data were collected from the World Bank database. The analysis was carried out through the structural model of dynamic data panel with fixed effects, estimated by Maximum Likelihood. It is concluded, with the research, that the consumption of non-renewable energy, the GDP per capita and the population have a direct and positive impact on CO2 emissions, while the consumption of renewable energy and the internal credit of the private sector have a negative impact on CO2 emissions. In addition, per capita GDP and population also have an indirect impact on CO2 emissions through their relationship to non-renewable energy consumption. The results of the direct effects showed that: i) for 1% of the increase in the income of the countries, there was an increase of 0.18% in CO2 emissions; ii) the 1% increase in the consumption of energy from renewable sources had the positive effect of reducing the level of emissions by 0.12%; iii) the increase in energy consumption from non-renewable sources has aggravated the carbon dioxide problem by 0.2%; iv) the 1% increase in the total population caused an increase of 0.21% in CO2 emissions; v) for 1% of the increase in countries' credit, there was an increase of 0.13% in CO2 emissions. It is important to emphasize that the results are based on a specific sample observed for a certain period of time; therefore, they may vary in other contexts and periods of time. However, they are useful for understanding how different factors influence CO2 emissions and therefore help to inform public policies and climate change mitigation strategies. Everyone is proposed to adopt measures related to energy technologies from alternative sources. In addition, it is recommended to invest in education, encourage changes in behavior and make the population aware of the impact of CO2 emissions. The present work has some limitations, such as the time restriction and the lack of complete and accurate data, which resulted in the exclusion of some countries in the analysis. Regarding future perspectives, it is suggested to explore additional variables to understand the factors that influence CO2 emissions. Another suggestion for future studies refers to also addressing the climatic effects and impacts, resulting from CO2 emissions, on ecosystems and human health.