Dinâmica de sistemas para análise do impacto da inserção de veículos elétricos

Abstract

Air pollution and greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels in the transport sector are responsible for around 25% of global CO2 emissions. To reduce these emissions, the electrification of urban mobility is an emerging trend, with the insertion of electric vehicles in Brazilian cities that can have a positive impact on reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The thesis aims to conceive, develop and evaluate model(s) of system dynamics that support the decision-making process involving the insertion of electric vehicles in the electric power system, focusing on the feasibility of implementing electric buses in a city. Electric transport is an important alternative to reduce polluting gas emissions in the transport sector. Electric vehicles are also an alternative for the business world, this study reinforces the use of electric vehicles in transport, where new strategies are presented and analyzed. The method used in this study is that of system dynamics, which is an approach to understand the behavior of complex systems over time. With the application of the methodology, the systems of electric vehicles can be understood and analyzed, through the interactions between the variables of the models. Furthermore, new policies and structures can be designed to improve the behavior of the current system. The main results point out the importance of the insertion of electric vehicles. The results show that the use of electric vehicles reduces emissions and transport costs, highlighting the importance of their use to combat vehicle emissions and ensure a sustainable future. Some limitations are highlighted, such as the lack of models of some electric vehicles, such as trucks, which due to lack of data were not included in the study. As future work, it is intended to expand the models of energy generation through solar panels and also to develop models that are less broad and more focused on different situations.