Aplicação de métodos quantitativos de previsão de demanda em um frigorífico

Abstract

The present study aims to apply quantitative methods of demand forecasting that are suitable for estimating the future quantity of animals to be slaughtered in a meatpacking company. The study was conducted in a company that currently realizes its projections based on the opinions of its managers, which are supported by years of experience and knowledge of market behavior. Thus, the company’s current system only considers qualitative aspects and lacks a quantitative demand forecasting indicator. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to propose the use of quantitative demand forecasting methods in the cattle slaughter sector of a meat packing company. The research question guiding this study is "which demand forecasting method is best suited for the cattle slaughter sector of meatpacking company?". To achieve this purpose, the historical data collected regarding the number of cattle slaughtered by a meatpacking company over a period of 24 months is analyzed. Additionally, three variations of moving averages and four alternatives of simple exponential smoothing (SES) are performed, along with an examination of which method yielded the best performance. The research findings reveal that the SES method achieved more satisfactory results in its forecasts, being this tool more accurate than the moving average options in this case. As the main contribution, this research may have practical implications regarding the planning sector of the meatpacking company under study.