Marcação a mercado de títulos públicos sob a ótica das finanças comportamentais

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the impact of the presence or absence of mark-to-market valuation on public securities in the context of investor decision-making. The focus was on the implementation carried out by ANBIMA in 2022, which changed the way the profitability of federal public securities held by Brazilian financial institutions is visualized. The research adopted a descriptive approach in the form of a quasi-experiment, using two distinct scenarios. Responses were collected via email, with 43 participants, 21 in scenario 1 and 22 in scenario 2. The first scenario featured mark-to-market valuation in the visualization of asset profitability, while the second adopted mark-to-curve valuation for the same assets, using the NTN-B from the National Treasury as an example. The decision to maintain an investment was explored considering the recognition of non-linearities. Investors capable of understanding the complexities of financial markets are more likely to accurately assess the true value of their assets, enabling informed decisions and a more comprehensive consideration of expected risks and returns. Thus, hypothesis H1 was formulated: Mark-to-market valuation reduces the intention to invest compared to mark-to-curve valuation. Additionally, four cognitive biases

(availability, regret aversion, overconfidence, and loss aversion) and respondents' self- perception regarding conscious decision-making were measured. Data collection was done

through digital questionnaires, tabulated and analyzed using software such as Microsoft Excel and Eviews 10. Results indicated that, overall, respondents maintained a generally uninfluenced opinion regarding biases, with a particular emphasis on conscious decision-making. In the analysis of perception about conscious decision-making, participants showed a tendency to consider various aspects before making decisions, thus remaining in agreement with the presented statements. The study's conclusion revealed that, even in different scenarios and behavioral biases, investors demonstrated a somewhat uninfluenced opinion by biases, although variations were observed in some aspects. Risk perception stood out as an area of attention for future research, considering the tendency toward underestimation. Upon reviewing the results, it was observed that there was no significant difference between the two analyzed groups. The first group, exposed to the mark-to-market valuation graph, obtained similar results to the second group, where only mark-to-curve valuation was presented, regarding investment decisions, invested amount, risk perception, and the decision to maintain the investment. This contradicts the proposed hypothesis (H1). The research addresses potential differences between mark-to-market and mark-to-curve valuation, concluding that these factors are not determinants in investment decisions. It emphasizes that such differences do not influence the choice to invest, the amount invested, risk perception, or the decision to hold the security until maturity. It also provides insights for financial market professionals and investors regarding the presence of biases in people's behavior.