Resultado primário e o custo da dívida pública: análise da relação entre os anos de 2001 a 2022

Abstract

Public debt is a crucial instrument for financing and managing public accounts. During periods of reduced revenue, the public sector must seek resources to balance

finances. In atypical moments, the state is compelled to increase indebtedness for self- financing, aiming for fiscal stability. The objective of this study is to analyze the

relationship between the primary surplus and the cost of debt from 2001 to 2022. Methodologically, the Two-Stage Least Squares method was employed. In terms of results, the variables primary surplus and debt cost exhibit an inverse relationship. For each increase of R$1,000,000.00 in the primary surplus, there is a decrease of R$101,863.20 in the debt cost. This demonstrates that a consistent primary surplus can be a strategy for improving the current fiscal situation and ensuring debt sustainability in the long term. On the other hand, the debt cost has a positive correlation with net revenue and the exchange rate, with each increase of R$1,000,000.00 raising the debt cost by R$161,860.00 and R$37,049,710,000.00, respectively. Additionally, the interest rate also showed a positive relationship, with an impact of R$9,464,064,000.00 for each one-percentage-point increase. This underscores the need for controlled growth in these variables to achieve the objective of reducing the debt cost.