Política externa chinesa e Primavera Árabe: peacebuilding na relação China-Tunísia (2011-2022)

Abstract

This research aimed to analyze Chinese foreign policy, using the concept of peacebuilding with Chinese characteristics, through a case study focused on China's actions in Tunisia between 2011 and 2022. A causal mechanism was developed, using process tracing and the Bayesian inference logic of Beach and Pedersen (2013), to understand the transmission of “causal forces” between variables. Three specific objectives were outlined, accompanied by two hypotheses: that Chinese action can be explained by ideas, ideologies and historical experiences associated with peacebuilding with Chinese characteristics, and that there is a dual purpose in this practice, aimed at spreading Chinese norms and integrating international norms. The theoretical basis included peacebuilding concepts, as proposed by Adhikari (2021), and elements linked to the contestation/integration of international norms. A historical retrospective analysis, based on works by Fairbank (1969), Shambaugh (2020), Westad (2020) and Freeman Jr. (2020), revealed dissonances in relation to the logic of regional prioritization and placed the practice in the broader context of the history of Chinese foreign policy. The empirical analysis corroborated the validity of the peacebuilding model with Chinese characteristics, highlighting the role of the ideology of stability and economic development. Recommendations for future research include comparative studies between countries and a more in-depth investigation into the activities of Chinese NGOs in foreign policy.