Análise da competitividade do gás natural como combustível para veículos leves de passageiros no Brasil

Abstract

Fossil fuels are widely used in mobility and cover a large portion of the energy employed in this sector. However, the demand for sustainable energy solutions for the sector is increasing and hence reducing the dependence on traditional fossil fuels is the target of several countries. In Brazil the most commonly used fuels in passenger cars are gasoline (with added anhydrous ethanol) and hydrous ethanol. Compressed natural gas (CNG) is mostly used by professional drivers. The implementation of governmental programs for the use of renewable fuels such as the PROÁLCOOL and the more recent RenovaBio has become strategic to position Brazil among countries with a broadly sustainable energy matrix. Thus, to widely spread the use of CNG as a fuel for mobility purposes, some key points need to be investigated, such as its production, storage, distribution, and application in vehicles. This project aims at proposing a model to evaluate and measure the competitiveness of the use of natural gas in some scenarios. The proposed modeling was tested based on 3 Fundamental View Points (PVFs), 10 Critical Success Factors (FCS), found based on bibliographic and documentary recurrence. We constructed 38 performance indicators using the assumptions alluding to Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), some elements of the multicriteria decision support approach, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) concepts. Subsequently, the modeling was tested through a consultation of 11 specialists from the area, from universities, research centers, foundations, associations and companies with strong links with vehicular natural gas in Brazil. The evaluation levels of the scenarios investigated were defined as "potentially competitive". The overall picture shows that stronger government action needs to be applied in order to achieve "highly competitive" scenarios for this fuel.