Estudo de números índices e correlação entre política cambial e contas externas do Brasil na década de 2000

Abstract

In this study, we tried to talk clearly and concisely on the use of indicators and indices and how they can be changed and updated over time relative to a base pre-established, as well as the study of Real Effective Exchange Rate and Brazilian trade balance, since the exchange rate policy is of utmost importance for the control of foreign accounts where their oscillations (surplus or deficit) may require action by the Government of adjustments in the economy. The main objective was to assess the magnitude of the correlation between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments in the 2000s, using a methodology that unlike usual to calculate the Real Effective Exchange Rate employ up to 16 partners with greater trade exchange with Brazil, this work was chosen by the four largest in trade (U.S., Germany, China and Japan). That done, we attempted to observe the movement of foreign accounts in response to movement of the exchange rate during the first quarter of 2000 to fourth quarter of 2009 through a model uniequacional linear regression. We opted for simplified diagnostics focusing on four indicators / tests: the coefficient of determination, the t (and p-value) and the F statistic, the normality of the residuals. The dependent variables were tested individually: Exports, Imports, Balance of Payments, GDP and national income over the independent variable Real Effective Exchange Rate. It was observed from the results that the variations of exports, GDP and national income were strongly explained by the variation of the exchange rate, imports showed a variable degree of explanation median, the SBC has been poorly explained. The results showed that although we consider only the four largest trading partners the answers were expected signals with a high negative correlation was not observed apena to the Trade Balance.