Efeitos da política fiscal sobre a atividade industrial de São Paulo

Abstract

The main objective of the work was to understand how São Paulo's fiscal policies, in particular those related to the tax collection of ICMS and fees, influence the state's monthly industrial production rate in the period from 2002 to 2022. The research was conducted through a time series analysis approach, using an industrial production estimation model. Initially, a bibliographical review was carried out to contextualize the importance of industrial production in the context of sustainable growth in Brazil, highlighting the relationship of this dynamic with economic policies, mainly fiscal policies. Next, the choice of São Paulo as a focus was justified by its relevance in the national industrial GDP and its history as an industrial center, also considering the fiscal war between the states. The São Paulo industrial production estimation model was carried out to understand the specific influences of the ICMS and Tax collection policy. The analysis used quantitative techniques, including graphical and bibliographical analyzes and the application of regression models. The Granger causality test was used to examine the temporal relationship between ICMS collection and industrial production. The results showed growth in industrial production until 2013, followed by a decline influenced by fiscal austerity. The graphical analysis of tax collection policy reveals an increasing behavior, even though, based on the bibliographical analysis, there were benefits granted to industrial sectors through credits and waivers. The regression model estimation indicated a negative relationship between industrial production and ICMS collection, while the relationship with Tax collection was positive, confirming the initial hypotheses. The Granger causality test presented unexpected results, indicating that ICMS collection precedes industrial production. This led to a more in-depth econometric analysis, considering a new econometric model and the analysis of new variables, such as IPCA and São Paulo's Unemployment Rate. The new economic model maintained the partial relationships between the variables. The practical implications highlighted that São Paulo's fiscal policies, in response to the fiscal war between states, grant tax benefits to the industrial sector. However, these policies did not result in significant gains in industrial production, reduced inflation or increased employment. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a need to reevaluate these policies in relation to industrial development.