Análise econômica de sistemas de produção de ovinos com diferentes taxas de natalidade

Abstract

Cost analysis is an important organizational tool and it is essential for identifying the main obstacles to the economic success. This study aimed to economically analyze sheep production systems, using electronic spreadsheets, enabling the user/producer to easily visualize all the production system items and being able to make decisions accurately, through simulations. All simulations were calculated based on a Corriedale herd in a full cycle system. For the economic analysis of the sheep production systems, 1.0 lambing/ewe/year was determined, in which 30% were double lambings. Considering lambing, herds were defined for a total area of 150 hectares. in which there is a 20% legal reserve. For the systems under study to be considered viable, the simulations should reach a minimum attractiveness rate (AMR) of 10%, that is, the investment project will only become viable when the internal rate of return (IRR) is equal to or greater. The AMR studied. To simulate the reproductive index, three birth rates were used: 75, 85 and 95%, resulting in a herd prolificacy rate of 98, 110 and 123%, respectively. To analyze production systems with different birth rates, economic indicators were used to assist in the farmer’s decision-making process. In sheep systems with birth rates of 98%, 110% and 123%, total gross income (TGI) was R$ 173,118.83, R$181,881.48 and R$189,882.17, respectively. The gross margins (GM) resulted in R$ 10,020.77, R$ 15,410.29 and R$ 20,331.15, respectively, for the birth rates studied. Net margins (NM) resulted in R$ -11,157.24, R$ -5,767.73 and R$ -846.87 depending on the birth rates studied. From this analysis, the profit value (PV) obtained was R$ -106,644.61, R$ -100,585.91 and R$ -95,054.06, respectively, for the system with different birth rates. The profitability indexes (PI) founded were -62, -55 and -50 for birth rates of 98, 110 and 123%, respectively. In the investments analysis for the production system with a 98% prolific rate of considering the acquisition of livestock, machines and implements and improvements, the net present value (NPV) was unfavorable, resulting in a value of R$ 548,763.40 below the value of the initial investment, which was R$580,352.58. For the sheep production system with birth rates of 110 and 123%, the NPV demonstrated a favorable result, with positive the internal rate of return (IRR) of 11 and 13%, which demonstrate the system viable from an investment point of view. This positive rate indicates that the capital invested in the activity may be recovered and the available balance annually relieves equal to the internal rate of return. The use of management tools such as electronic spreadsheets, helping to define the best time to invest, which may bring administrative improvements and assist in the decision-making process for the farmers.