Países em desenvolvimento da Ásia e América Latina: uma avaliação empírica sobre suas estratégias de crescimento (1970-2002)

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes in a compared way the economies in development of Asia and Latin America and Caribbean starting from univariate and multivariate analyses empiric of the socioeconomic repercussions of their development strategies; specifically, the models of substitution of imports are analyzed and the one of orientation for the exterior in the period from 1970 to 2002. It problematizes on the similarities and discrepancies among the savings in development of Asia and Latin America and Caribbean and the socioeconomic consequencies of those experiences on the development of the countries in the period. Through the cointegration test using the Johansen procedure was shown that the investment and the economical growth possess relationship of long period for a minority of Asian countries, while in the Latin-American cases they correspond for almost the half. The test of Granger's causality between the growth of the savings and the investment evidenced that about a third of the Latin-American countries present independence among those varied, while almost half presented bicausality in the Asian economies. The factorial analysis and cluster showed the emblematic cases of substitution of imports to the years 1980 arrived in 2002 without profile that the external trade could be preponderant element of the development. Parallel, some cases thankfully of politics oriented to the exterior presented high association with the factor that included the industrial section instead of what referred, strictly, to the external trade in 2002.